What Will the Smartphone Market Look Like in 2015?

Google and Apple are in a heated battle for control of the world’s smartphone market, but which mobile OS will reign supreme down the road?

That’s the question research and analyst firm Gartner is trying to answer. Its most recent prediction is turning some heads, though: Microsoft Windows Phone 7 will overtake Apple iOS market share by 2015. Not only that, but Gartner believes Android will control nearly 50% of the mobile smartphone market within two years.

In its most recent predictions report, Gartner claims Android will jump from 38.5% market share this year to 49.2% in 2012. That’s more than double its 22.7% market share in 2010. Needless to say, it’s a shocking conclusion.

Just as mind-boggling is the conclusion that iOS will actually peak in market share this year at 19.4%, then drop to 18.9% next year and 17.2% by 2015. Windows Phone, on the other hand, will grow from 5.6% this year to 10.8% next year and eventually reach 19.5% in 2015, according to the research firm’s estimates. BlackBerryis destined for a slow decline, dropping from 13.4% this year to 11.1% in 2015.

A Window into the Future

Of course, these are just estimates from one research firm in a very chaotic market. Case-in-point: seven months ago, Gartner predicted that Symbian would be the top OS in 2014 with 30.2% market share, Windows Phone 7 would just have 3.9% of the market in 2014, and Apple would only have 14.9%. Of course, these predictions came before Microsoft and Nokia struck their Windows Phone 7 deal, essentially dooming Symbian.

Some of the firm’s assumptions are tough to swallow as well. As Asymco points out, Gartner assumes Apple is interesting maintaining margins over increasing market share and RIM will migrate from BlackBerry OS to QNX by 2012.

Apple though is testing cheaper phones and seems to have learned from its mistakes competing with Microsoft during the Mac vs. PC years. RIM only acquired QNX Software last year. We believe it will take more time for RIM to fully integrate QNX software into its devices. 2012 is too aggressive.

Still, Gartner’s analysis provides an interesting window into the future of mobile. Android is showing no signs of slowing down, and it’s too early to tell how the Nokia-Microsoft partnership will play out. And there’s always the chance of another acquisition, merger or partnership that shakes up the industry.

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Prepare for Earth Hour 2011 With iPhone App

The World Wildlife Fund’s annual Earth Hour awareness campaign now has an app of its own.

This iPhone offering will help ordinary people accomplish extraordinary things with simple tasks that take the Earth Hour idea beyond a once-a-year activity.

Created by the WWF with help from the Leo Burnett Group, the app “is all about taking Earth Hour a step further by encouraging people to do things to help the planet every day, not just for that one hour,” said a Burnett rep.

To that point, the app is called 60+ [iTunes link] and is available for download now.

The app works a bit like a location-based service in that it has to-dos and checkins. But for this mobile application, you’ll check in positive actions you’ve done from a list provided by the app; for example, you might use more natural lighting, change your air conditioning settings or install a water-saving showerhead.

As you check in more actions, you’ll earn achievements, which are shareable across larger social networks, as well.

In addition to extending Earth Hour beyond its given 60-minute time period, the app aims to expand the geographic reach of Earth Hour. To that end, the WWF and Burnett will be tracking individual and global checkins and achievements within the app to gauge participation and impact around the world.

Soon, the app should have Game Center support to boost friendly competition among its users.

The Burnett Group rep also told us that the design’s interface has a unique, hand-drawn feel — because all the design elements were actually drawn from hand.

“The entire design of the app is also an act of going beyond the hour, as we created the entire interface out of discarded cardboard boxes and paper,” he noted.

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